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Abstract Aim As climate change increases the frequency and severity of droughts in many regions, conservation during drought is becoming a major challenge for ecologists. Droughts are multidimensional climate events whose impacts may be moderated by changes in temperature, water availability or food availability, or some combination of these. Simultaneously, other stressors such as extensive anthropogenic landscape modification may synergize with drought. Useful observational models for guiding conservation decision‐making during drought require multidimensional, dynamic representations to disentangle possible drought impacts, and consequently, they will require large, highly resolved data sets. In this paper, we develop a two‐stage predictive framework for assessing how drought impacts vary with species, habitats and climate pathways.
Location Central Valley, California, USA.
Methods We used a two‐stage counterfactual analysis combining predictive linear mixed models and N‐mixture models to characterize the multidimensional impacts of drought on 66 bird species. We analysed counts from the eBird participatory science data set between 2010 and 2019 and produced species‐ and habitat‐specific estimates of the impact of drought on relative abundance.
Results We found that while fewer than a quarter (16/66) of species experienced abundance declines during drought, nearly half of all species (27/66) changed their habitat associations during drought. Among species that shifted their habitat associations, the use of natural habitats declined during drought while use of developed habitat and perennial agricultural habitat increased.
Main Conclusions Our findings suggest that birds take advantage of agricultural and developed land with artificial irrigation and heat‐buffering microhabitat structure, such as in orchards or parks, to buffer drought impacts. A working lands approach that promotes biodiversity and mitigates stressors across a human‐induced water gradient will be critical for conserving birds during drought.
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Abstract Notwithstanding popular perception, the environmental impacts of organic agriculture, particularly with respect to pesticide use, are not well established. Fueling the impasse is the general lack of data on comparable organic and conventional agricultural fields. We identify the location of ~9,000 organic fields from 2013 to 2019 using field-level crop and pesticide use data, along with state certification data, for Kern County, CA, one of the US’ most valuable crop producing counties. We parse apart how being organic relative to conventional affects decisions to spray pesticides and, if spraying, how much to spray using both raw and yield gap-adjusted pesticide application rates, based on a global meta-analysis. We show the expected probability of spraying any pesticides is reduced by about 30 percentage points for organic relative to conventional fields, across different metrics of pesticide use including overall weight applied and coarse ecotoxicity metrics. We report little difference, on average, in pesticide use for organic and conventional fields that do spray, though observe substantial crop-specific heterogeneity.
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Abstract Understanding seasonal patterns of activity, or phenology, of vector species is fundamental to determining seasonality of disease risk and epidemics of vector‐borne disease. Spatiotemporal variation in abiotic conditions can influence variation in phenological patterns and life history events, which can dramatically influence the ecological role and human impact of a species. For arthropod vectors of human diseases such as ticks, these phenological patterns determine human exposure risk, yet how abiotic conditions interact to determine suitable conditions for host‐seeking of vector species is difficult to disentangle.
Here, we use MaxEnt to model spatial patterns and differences in host‐seeking phenology of the western blacklegged tick (
Ixodes pacificus ) in California using spatially and temporally refined adult tick occurrence data and similarly refined climate and environmental data. We empirically validate the model using phenological data from field studies conducted at sites across California's latitudinal gradient.We find adult tick host‐seeking activity varies substantially throughout the year, as well as across the large latitudinal gradient in the state. Suitable conditions for host‐seeking are found earlier in fall and later in the spring in northern than in southern California. These seasonal patterns are primarily associated with monthly precipitation, minimum winter temperature, and winter precipitation, with maximum monthly temperature possibly playing a more prominent role in limiting host‐seeking activity earlier in the spring in southern than northern California.
Synthesis and applications . Modelling the seasonal activity of the western blacklegged tick, we find both a longer window for host‐feeding and more protracted risk of human exposure to this vector species in northern than southern California. We further identify key environmental factors associated with these patterns, including precipitation and temperature that are otherwise challenging to elucidate in field and laboratory studies over large spatial scales. Moreover, we illustrate how species distribution models, in combination with temporally refined species occurrence and environmental data, can be used to investigate environmental factors predictive of geographic variation in seasonality or phenology of vector species. This produces not only novel ecological insight, but key information for public health practitioners in managing vector‐borne disease transmission and targeting public outreach and interventions. -
Human land use threatens global biodiversity and compromises multiple ecosystem functions critical to food production. Whether crop yield–related ecosystem services can be maintained by a few dominant species or rely on high richness remains unclear. Using a global database from 89 studies (with 1475 locations), we partition the relative importance of species richness, abundance, and dominance for pollination; biological pest control; and final yields in the context of ongoing land-use change. Pollinator and enemy richness directly supported ecosystem services in addition to and independent of abundance and dominance. Up to 50% of the negative effects of landscape simplification on ecosystem services was due to richness losses of service-providing organisms, with negative consequences for crop yields. Maintaining the biodiversity of ecosystem service providers is therefore vital to sustain the flow of key agroecosystem benefits to society.more » « less
